Bioclimatic modeling – Urban Wetland

In order to plan habitat restoration activities, it is initially necessary to understand the real situation and its dynamics. Therefore, scientists use the bioclimatic modeling method.

Bioclimatic modeling is a data analysis method that connects the finding places of living organisms (plants, animals) with environmental and climate indicators (temperature, precipitation) to predict the geographical distribution of species, study the impact of climate change, and plan nature conservation. Let’s look at various bioclimatic modeling methods.

Accounting

A very informative bioclimatic modeling method is accounting (surveying). It is implemented depending on the animal species being surveyed. For example, during the breeding season, male anurans (tailless amphibians) are characterized by loud mating calls or vocalizations, which are species-specific, often audible from a long distance, and allow large-scale surveys to be conducted in a relatively short time with limited resources. Using data from vocalizing male surveys, it is possible to make extrapolations to determine the minimum possible breeding population size in a specific territory.

However, such accounting must be done correctly – at least 3 surveys in different time periods are required, choosing days with potentially poor weather conditions. Also, the species specifics must be taken into account, as the calling audibility distance for green frogs, tree frogs, green and natterjack toads is 500 m, for the common toad – 150 m, for the moor frog and fire-bellied toad – 100 m, and for the common frog and spadefoot – 50 m.

The data obtained in the survey are recorded both contextually (recording not only the number but also the time, temperature, and weather conditions) and fixed on a map.

Larvae, turtles, and other creatures living in the habitats that cannot be surveyed by vocalization are also counted. They are counted by conducting diligent visual research.

eDNA

Environmental DNA or eDNA is the genetic material that living organisms leave in the surrounding environment – in the water, soil, or air. Instead of catching and studying the animal or plant directly, scientists take samples from nature and find the DNA particles left there to determine the presence of specific species.

There are various protocols for conducting eDNA research. One of such protocols is the technology developed by the French company SPYGEN, which allows determining species living in the water (fish, amphibians, reptiles, etc.) by filtering water samples and analyzing the genetic material left in it.

After the water is acquired, laboratory analysis is performed, and the results are stored together with the location. In this way, it is possible to detect the presence of species in the habitat, as well as observe the development dynamics of a territory.

Any data, especially when it comes to underrepresented species, must be correctly interpreted. The lack of DNA material does not always indicate that there is not a single individual of the species in the territory. Although the method involves using a large amount of water (over 30 liters per measurement), it must be taken into account that the data may not reflect the real situation.

Modeling

When data from all the research methods used has been collected, it is combined with geographical, climatic, and other data to create a species distribution model. The more and the more diverse studies have been conducted, the more accurately a species distribution model can be depicted on a map.

By repeatedly conducting research and modeling, it is possible to observe the development dynamics of the habitat and predict the condition of the habitat in the future. If there is reason to believe that the condition of the habitat is deteriorating, habitat restoration is planned and carried out.